Buford Dam — Daily Discharge Forecast

Scheduled MW (min load)

Both thresholds met

ARIMA Forecast

MW = 6 threshold

CFS = 4,000 threshold

24-Hour MW Schedule & Predicted Discharge

MW vs Predicted CFS

Buford Dam Rating Curve (MW → CFS)

Model basis: 3 Francis turbine-generators, each ~22 MW / 2,200 CFS. Knees at 7 MW (1 unit min), 22 MW (1 unit full), 44 MW (2 units full), 67 MW (3 units full). Values linearly interpolated between control points.

USGS 02334430 — Chattahoochee R. at Buford Dam, GA Source Gauge

USGS gauge directly at the dam tailrace. Actual released discharge (solid) vs. the scheduled CFS derived from the MW generation plan (dashed). Divergence indicates spill events, unit outages, or schedule changes. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02334653 — Chattahoochee R. at McGinnis Ferry Rd, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — the first USGS gauge below Buford Dam (~5 river miles). At this distance ~90% of the dam release arrives with only ~1h lag. Minimal tributary inflow above this gauge. Parameters are initial estimates — will be calibrated once observed data is collected. Actual CFS shown in sky blue. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02335000 — Chattahoochee R. Near Norcross, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse disperses into a ~12h hydrograph at Norcross (observed min→max→min cycle). Peak lag ~4h, wave front arrives ~2h, returns to base ~14h after release. Attenuation ~35% over ~15 river miles. Base flow ~400 CFS (Dick's Creek, Level Creek). Actual CFS shown in yellow · ARIMA 24h forecast shown as short dotted line · Turbidity (FNU) shown in blue on right axis when available. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02335450 — Chattahoochee R. at Roswell, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse disperses into a ~12h hydrograph at Roswell (observed min→max→min cycle). Peak lag ~7h, wave front arrives ~4h, returns to base ~16h after release. Attenuation ~18.5% over ~25 river miles. Base flow ~600 CFS (Big Creek, Johns Creek, other tributaries). Actual USGS readings shown in yellow when available. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02335815 — Chattahoochee R. at Morgan Falls Dam, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse dispersed through Morgan Falls reservoir. Recalibrated from 5/20–5/24 actuals: peak lag ~11h, 8h pulse, 25% attenuation, ~1,150 CFS base (Sope Creek, Rottenwood Creek). Prior grid-search MAE improvement: 69%. Actual USGS readings shown in pink when available. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02335880 — Chattahoochee R. at Powers Ferry Rd, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse arrives at Powers Ferry after passing through Morgan Falls re-regulating reservoir. Peak lag ~12h, attenuation ~7.5% over ~38 river miles. Base flow from end-of-previous-day USGS reading. Parameters are initial estimates — will be calibrated once observed data is collected. Actual CFS shown in teal · Turbidity (FNU) shown in amber on right axis when available. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02336000 — Chattahoochee R. at Atlanta (Paces Ferry), GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse arrives at the Atlanta metro gauge after ~14h. Attenuation ~6% over ~48 river miles. Base flow elevated by Peachtree Creek, Nancy Creek, and other major Atlanta tributaries. Parameters are initial estimates — will be calibrated once observed data is collected. Actual CFS shown in amber · Turbidity (FNU) shown in purple on right axis when available. View live gauge ↗

USGS 02337170 — Chattahoochee R. at Fairburn, GA

Model: Triangular IRF convolution — Buford pulse arrives at the Fairburn gauge after ~18h. Attenuation ~5% over ~60+ river miles. Base flow elevated by Utoy Creek and south-Atlanta metro tributaries. Parameters are initial estimates — will be calibrated once observed data is collected. Actual CFS shown in violet. View live gauge ↗